“The Great Filter will have been passed when the city on Mars can survive even if the spaceships from Earth stop coming for any reason, it doesn't matter what the reason is.
But if they stop coming for any reason, will it die out or will it not? And if there's even one critical ingredient missing, then it still doesn't count.
If you're on a long sea voyage, and you've got everything except vitamin C, it's only a matter of time, you know you're going to die.
We've got to get Mars city to the point where it's self-sustaining.
I'm not sure this will really happen in my lifetime, but I hope to see it at least have a lot of momentum.”
Lex Fridman Podcast, December 28, 2021 — Elon Musk
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